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PostPosted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:10 pm 
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The influx in the number of missionaries and the "new" missionary program made me think if there will be an influx in the number of converts. I don't want to look at just the numbers, but how effective the new program will be. So if we look at the numbers by how many convert baptisms/missionary there are, it should show some trends in how effective the missionary program is.

Here's what the statistics look since 1989 for "# of convert baptisms/full time missionaries"
1989 - 8.03
1990 - 7.58
1991 - 6.86
1992 - 5.96
1993 - 6.26
1994 - 6.36
1995 - 6.26
1996 - 6.07
1997 - 5.62
1998 - 5.17
1999 - 5.23
2000 - 4.51
2001 - 4.81
2002 - 4.59
2003 - 4.32
2004 - 4.72
2005 - 4.67
2006 - 5.13
2007 - 5.3
2008 - 5.06
2009 - 5.41
2010 - 5.22
2011 - 5.08
2012 - 4.62

As you can see, the number of convert baptisms/full-time missionaries has dropped significantly over the years. In order for the church to even match last years number of 4.62, based off of 75,000 or so missionaries in the field this year, there will need to be 346,500 new converts in 2013. That's an increase of 74,170 converts or a 27% increase over last year.

I have a hard time believing this will happen with missionaries sitting in churches waiting for tours and trying to find people on the internet and social media. We'll see....


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:39 pm 
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And we have yet to see whether throwing a bunch of 18-year old missionaries into the ring will do more good than harm.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:26 am 
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Hagoth wrote:
And we have yet to see whether throwing a bunch of 18-year old missionaries into the ring will do more good than harm.


The best missionaries in my experience have been in the 22-25 year old range. They're so much more level headed when they're university graduates.

I can see this figure of converts per missionary taking another nose dive as there are a load more missionaries who are serving at a less effective age.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:37 am 
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The numbers posted above are sort of startling to me. Are there really about 4 and a half baptisms for every one missionary? I thought it was lower than that but it could be that I am in an area with extremely low rates.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:55 am 
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The Montanan wrote:
The numbers posted above are sort of startling to me. Are there really about 4 and a half baptisms for every one missionary? I thought it was lower than that but it could be that I am in an area with extremely low rates.


Those numbers come right from the statistical reports given in conference each year. This is an average of all missionaries around the world. So there will be places like, Japan, where I served where it seemed a missionary was lucky to have a couple baptisms on their whole mission. Then places like South America where they can baptize many people every month.

I was actually surprised the numbers were that low. Think about it, these full-time missionaries are spending all-day, everyday, with one goal, getting converts to God's one and only true church and on average they only got 4.62 converts last year.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 8:33 am 
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shinjiruka? wrote:
The influx in the number of missionaries and the "new" missionary program made me think if there will be an influx in the number of converts. I don't want to look at just the numbers, but how effective the new program will be. So if we look at the numbers by how many convert baptisms/missionary there are, it should show some trends in how effective the missionary program is.

Here's what the statistics look since 1989 for "# of convert baptisms/full time missionaries"
1989 - 8.03
1990 - 7.58
1991 - 6.86
1992 - 5.96
1993 - 6.26
1994 - 6.36
1995 - 6.26
1996 - 6.07
1997 - 5.62
1998 - 5.17
1999 - 5.23
2000 - 4.51
2001 - 4.81
2002 - 4.59
2003 - 4.32
2004 - 4.72
2005 - 4.67
2006 - 5.13
2007 - 5.3
2008 - 5.06
2009 - 5.41
2010 - 5.22
2011 - 5.08
2012 - 4.62

As you can see, the number of convert baptisms/full-time missionaries has dropped significantly over the years. In order for the church to even match last years number of 4.62, based off of 75,000 or so missionaries in the field this year, there will need to be 346,500 new converts in 2013. That's an increase of 74,170 converts or a 27% increase over last year.

I have a hard time believing this will happen with missionaries sitting in churches waiting for tours and trying to find people on the internet and social media. We'll see....


Thanks this is an interesting chart. Great post.

I am curious about the spike up 2005-2006. It looked like it had some legs for a few years too. I wonder if that is when Preach My Gospel came out?

And . . .I checked it out and that is exactly when it came out!

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2005/04/the-power-of-preach-my-gospel?lang=eng

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:06 am 
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stealth wrote:
I am curious about the spike up 2005-2006. It looked like it had some legs for a few years too. I wonder if that is when Preach My Gospel came out?

And . . .I checked it out and that is exactly when it came out!

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2005/04/the-power-of-preach-my-gospel?lang=eng

That is also when the "Raising the Bar" took effect. The number of missionaries went down, but the number of converts per missionary went up slightly. That tells me that there are really only so many converts to be had, so perhaps the big missionary "surge" won't really add that many more converts, either.

fh451

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 10:55 am 
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fh451 wrote:
stealth wrote:
I am curious about the spike up 2005-2006. It looked like it had some legs for a few years too. I wonder if that is when Preach My Gospel came out?

And . . .I checked it out and that is exactly when it came out!

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2005/04/the-power-of-preach-my-gospel?lang=eng

That is also when the "Raising the Bar" took effect. The number of missionaries went down, but the number of converts per missionary went up slightly. That tells me that there are really only so many converts to be had, so perhaps the big missionary "surge" won't really add that many more converts, either.

fh451


Raising the bar was October of 2002. I saw the effects on my mission when I left in July 2003. God, it was hell.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 11:32 am 
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document wrote:
fh451 wrote:
stealth wrote:
I am curious about the spike up 2005-2006. It looked like it had some legs for a few years too. I wonder if that is when Preach My Gospel came out?

And . . .I checked it out and that is exactly when it came out!

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2005/04/the-power-of-preach-my-gospel?lang=eng

That is also when the "Raising the Bar" took effect. The number of missionaries went down, but the number of converts per missionary went up slightly. That tells me that there are really only so many converts to be had, so perhaps the big missionary "surge" won't really add that many more converts, either.

fh451


Raising the bar was October of 2002. I saw the effects on my mission when I left in July 2003. God, it was hell.


I know - but it took a couple of years for the full effects to be felt and the number of missionaries to drop off.

fh451

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 1:54 pm 
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I think there are a certain number of convert baptisms we would see even if there were no missionaries. Adding a small number of missionaries would add to those converts - they get the "low hanging fruit". But as the number of missionaries increases, there has to be a point of diminishing returns where there is almost zero increase in baptisms for additional missionaries. This means that baptisms per missionary will almost certainly drop as you increase the total number of missionaries.

I think the total number of baptisms will increase by a small amount with this bump in missionaries (even though baptisms per missionary drops). But in a year or two the temporary bump will be over and the number of missionaries will drop quickly which could be the start of a downward trend in number of missionaries and baptisms that may be difficult to reverse in the foreseeable future.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:55 pm 
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I think the increase from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed mostly to the 'Mormon moment'. There was a lot of increased visibility in the media because of Romney's bids for the presidency and a lot of discussion about Mormonism overall. I think it brought in more people who were inquisitive and had never heard of the church before. I think the decline we are seeing now is the result of that moment dying down as most people have now heard of Mormons, know a little about them, and have formed their opinions already. It is also because of the increased number of missionaries. I think this particular ratio will plummet this year and next.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:32 pm 
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fh451 wrote:
I know - but it took a couple of years for the full effects to be felt and the number of missionaries to drop off.

fh451


Ah. That makes sense. :)


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:57 pm 
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document wrote:
fh451 wrote:
I know - but it took a couple of years for the full effects to be felt and the number of missionaries to drop off.

fh451


Ah. That makes sense. :)

I mean, it may be that wasn't a factor, but the total missionary stats dropped off over the next two years, and was something else going on in that time frame.

fh451

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:24 pm 
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The one thing that would actually help convert numbers if all these missionaries that are out serving in the world actually did some serving. With not thought of reward, payoff, public relations, or converts. Simply serving to help people. But alas, that is verbotten.

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